Sunday, April 17, 2011

Wall of Worry

Wall of Worry

A proprietary indicator based on the VIX that also takes into account the level of the S&P 500.

Readings of 20 and below are Bearish (Sub-normal). [0, 20]

Readings above 20 are Bullish. (20, 100)

Expected returns are based on historical data. Past performance is no guarantee that these relationships will hold in the future.

Expected returns are for 1-month and 3-month returns of the S&P 500.

The terms "Bullish" and "Bearish" do not mean that returns are expected to be positive or negative; rather, they mean that returns are expected to be higher or lower than normal. In practice, that really only applies to the "Bearish" term, since stocks returns have historically had a positive bias.

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