Corporate-Treasury Yield Spread
Trailing percentile ranking of the yield spread between Moody's Baa-rated bonds and Treasury securities (a close proxy for the Junk-Treasury spread).
Readings of 80 and below are Bullish. [0, 80]
Readings above 80 are Bearish (Sub-normal). (80, 100)
Expected returns are based on historical data. Past performance is no guarantee that these relationships will hold in the future.
Expected returns are for 1-month and 3-month returns of the S&P 500.
The terms "Bullish" and "Bearish" do not mean that returns are expected to be positive or negative; rather, they mean that returns are expected to be higher or lower than normal. In practice, that really only applies to the "Bearish" term, since stocks returns have historically had a positive bias.